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Southeast Region Preseason XC Rankings 2016 - DyeStatPublished by
Southeast 1s: Brentwood boys, Lake Braddock girls
The Southeast Boys
By Paul Schmitz With big losses to graduation to the 2015 top teams, the Southeast is a region up for grabs. Georgia and Florida were represented at Nike Cross Nationals last year and this year we predict that Brentwood of Tennessee and St. Xavier Academy of Kentucky to represent the region in Portland. However, the state of North Carolina may have something to say about that prediction come November with Cardinal Gibbons and Broughton bringing senior-led teams into 2016. Florida is a unique state to rank because its best teams often come from its smallest classifications. We have one 4A school with a legitimate chance to podium in the region, St. Thomas Aquinas, along with two 3A schools, Creekside and Chiles, and three 2A schools, Trinity Prep, Satellite and Bolles. For now, none of those school makes it in our top 5 and we will wait to see who emerges as the season begins. Virginia has lost heavy to graduation in its top schools and we could see teams from a few different classes threaten for a regional ranking. Loudoun Valley (4A) in the post-Drew Hunter era appears to be the class of the state but may be a year away with no seniors in the top five. James Madison (6A) has a chance to dethrone defending state champion Lake Braddock, who lost five of seven to graduation. Class 3A schools Blacksburg and Cave Spring both have strong lineups and a legitimate chance to compete with the larger schools as both return five of their top six. Two long shots in the region are the defending state champions from South Carolina, Wando, and the defending champion from West Virginia, Cabell Midland. Wando, the AAAA champion returns its top six and are the clear favorites in SC. Cabell Midland dominated West Virginia last year with all seven of its runners finishing in the top 17 at state. Both teams will need to fill the back end of the roster to compete at the regional level. 1. Brentwood TN. The defending large school Tennessee Champions and sixth place Nike Southeast finishers return their top three runners, including returning SE champion Brodey Hasty (14:55). Hasty finished 7th at NXN and is the No. 2 returner from that race. With the potential low stick in the region and a solid returning class of seniors including Taylor and Jackson Vroon, this is the team to beat. 2. St. Xavier, Louisville KY. The defending 3A Kentucky state champions lost their top two to graduation but return their next five. They don’t have the star power of Brentwood, but they have five runners who ran under 9:50 in the 3200 this spring and they have several underclassmen with big upside. 3. Cardinal Gibbons NC. North Carolina looks like a toss-up with Cardinal Gibbons, Broughton and Green Hope all with optimism for a state title in 4A. We give the nod to Cardinal Gibbons behind Connor Lane, the state 3200 meter champion (9:06). 4. Broughton NC. The fourth place SE finisher from a year ago is lead by senior Lanier Derbyshire (9:20 3200 and 15:41 5K) but they will need their pack to move up after the graduation of defending state XC champion Jeremy Brown. 5. Auburn AL. There is going to be drama in Alabama as defending champion Auburn (16:00 top five average for 5K) hopes to hold off Mountain Brook High for the 7A championship. The teams finished 1-2 last year and each return six of their top seven in 2016. Watch list:
The Southeast Girls
By Adam Kopet To start the year, there appears to be very little separation between the top two teams in the Southeast. Both Lake Braddock VA and Blacksburg VA return the majority of their teams that competed at NXN, giving them valuable national experience. They finished within eight points of each other in Portland, with Blacksburg getting the upper hand. However, while there is experience among the top two teams, that does not mean they are a lock to return to the national meet. Expect at least one team to make a run at an NXN berth, whether it is from the addition of a fast freshman or even eighth grader, or through improvements made over the summer. Tatnall DE could be especially dangerous as four of their top five runners last year were freshman. If they can show improvement, they could make a major impact on who goes to NXN. 1. Lake Braddock VA: The Bruins return four of their top five and six of their top seven from their team that placed 13th at NXN last year. They are led by track phenom, and now senior, Kate Murphy, who ran 4:07 in the 1,500 and ran the 3,000 at the World U20 Championships in Poland. However, expect Murphy to get a late start to her season as she recovers from her track season that extended into July. 2. Blacksburg VA: Losing two runners from last year's team that finished 12th at NXN, the Bruins of Blacksburg are well situated to make a strong run into the post season. They are led by sophomore Sophia Link and senior Samantha Marin. Link won the Virginia Class 3A state meet last year while Marin was third. 3. Riverside SC: The Warriors were fifth at the Southeast Regional one year ago and they only lost one of their top seven runners to graduation. Riverside is largely unmatched in South Carolina when it comes to distance running. They should repeat as state champions after dominating the distance events during this past track season. 4. Tatnall DE: The Hornets only lost one runner to graduation last year and they return a young team that placed 12th at the Southeast Regional. Their top four are all sophomores, led by Keelin Hayes, who finished 12th at the regional meet as a freshman. 5. The Bolles FL: The Fighting Bulldogs return three of last year's top five runners that finished third at the Southeast Regional. Despite their losses, they will still be a formidable squad, led by junior Caitlin Collier, who finished seventh at the regional meet last year. Watch list:
The Road to Portland and the Introduction of the 2016 Dyestat Nike Regional Rankings. The DyeStat regional rankings offer a glimpse of who we think has the best chance to qualify for Nike Cross Nationals in Portland, Ore. on Dec. 3. As such, the "regions" are established by the nine areas created by Nike for their qualifying purposes. There have been slight variations to this configuration over time but since 2008 they have remained consistent: New York, given its dominance in the sport over the years, is a region unto itself. California, given its massive population and success, is also a region and its qualifiers come from a power merge at the conclusion of the CIF state championships. The rest of the country is divided into 7 areas: Southeast: Delaware, Maryland, Virgina, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and District of Columbia. South: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas and Mississippi. Heartland: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Midwest: Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Missouri. Northeast: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island and New Hampshire. Southwest: Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada. Northwest: Wyoming, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Alaska and Hawaii. These regional meets are open to any high schools from its corresponding states. If there is high demand, selectors ensure that the top teams are guaranteed a spot in the championship race. The top 2 teams in each of the eight regions and the top 2 teams from the California merge all automatically qualify for NXN. Nike also invites the top five individuals from the nine regions. In addition to the automatic qualifiers, a committee selects the next four deserving teams in the nation, bringing the total of participating teams to 22 each year. Every two weeks on Dyestat, Paul Schmitz (boys) and Adam Kopet (girls) will examine each region and make predictions about which teams are most likely to auto qualify for NXN. It is a big country to cover and we welcome your feedback. DyeStatCal editor Erik Boal handles the California rankings. More news |
